Black Friday is decided in August. The checklist.
Black Friday is decided in August. The surcharges are published, the tariffs are live, the free tools are out, and the brands that do the unglamorous work this month get to enjoy November. Here is the list.
1. Do the new duty math before you order inventory
On July 24, new US Section 301 duties took effect: an extra 10% or 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, layered on existing rates, right as BFCM purchase orders go out. If you import, reprice your landed cost per unit now, before the reorder, not after. Selling into the EU? The 150 euro duty-free threshold ended July 1, replaced by a flat 3 euro duty per low-value item until mid-2028. Small numbers, but they belong in your margin sheet.
2. Price the shipping season, not the shipping year
Take your best seller, compute its December doorstep cost with the surcharge, and decide now whether free shipping holds, moves to a threshold, or gets priced in.
3. Take the free research
Meta opened its 2026 Holiday Insights Center on July 27, with a small-business playbook attached. It is free consumer research from the platform that sees the most shopping behavior. Read it for the demand calendar even if you never buy another ad.
4. Baseline your numbers this month
August is the last calm month. Write down your current conversion rate, cost per customer, email revenue share and repeat rate. When November chaos arrives, you will know what changed only if you know what normal was. Our own view on honest numbers is the ledger we publish monthly.
5. Line up the partners now
The cheapest BFCM channel is another brand whose customer looks like yours: a swap in each other's emails, a bundle, a place on each other's thank-you page. None of it can be arranged in November, because everyone worth partnering with is busy by October. August is when those conversations are easy. That moment after checkout is also about to change on Shopify, which brings us to the last item.
6. Test your checkout before the freeze
Shopify auto-upgrades all remaining thank-you and order status pages on August 26, and anything in Additional scripts stops running. Fix it in August or debug it in peak season. The full walkthrough is in our guide to the August 26 deadline.
Sources
- USTR: Section 301 actions, duties effective July 24, 2026
- European Commission: flat fee on low-value imports until July 2028
- Supply Chain Dive: FedEx 2026 peak fees, residential surcharge up 23%
- Meta: 2026 Holiday Insights Center (July 27, 2026)
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