The public notes

Sparks.

What is moving in the trade, and what our own numbers actually say. We publish them whether they moved or not.

The trade

What a creator actually costs you

TikTok Shop affiliate commission runs 1% to 80% of GMV, and lowering it takes thirty days. The mechanics are fair. They are also rent.

4 August 2026 · Lir AroyoRead
The state of things

Nobody agrees what a customer costs

We went looking for the 2026 DTC acquisition cost. Published answers for the same channel ranged from $42 to $230.

4 August 2026 · Lir AroyoRead
The trade

Black Friday is decided in August. The checklist

The surcharges are published, the tariffs are live and the free tools are out. Six things worth doing before September.

2 August 2026 · Lir AroyoRead
The trade

Your Shopify thank-you page changes on August 26

Shopify upgrades every remaining thank-you and order status page on non-Plus stores, whether you pressed the button or not. Additional scripts stop running.

2 August 2026 · Lir AroyoRead
The trade

Your Meta ads bill grew this summer. Here is exactly why

Two separate things happened, and only one of them shows up in Ads Manager.

2 August 2026 · Lir AroyoRead
The trade

People ask ChatGPT what to buy. Here is how your store shows up

Almost half of shoppers research with AI now, and Shopify quietly switched on the plumbing that puts your catalogue in the answer.

2 August 2026 · Lir AroyoRead
The state of things

Month zero

AfterBye has no members. Not a small number of members. None. Here is the ledger anyway.

1 August 2026 · Lir AroyoRead